Wednesday June 25th, 2025
Congress Gets Cold Feet, Markets Get the Jitters
Trump’s Iran strike flop, a NATO mindf**k, and an impeachment that went nowhere. Meanwhile, the CDC panel’s a mess and the Nobel Peace Prize just became a sick joke. Tomorrow’s going to be spicy.
Today in one sentence: Congress braces for Iran fallout as Trump’s NATO antics spook allies, oil prices whiplash on Middle East chaos, Democrats chew each other up post-impeachment, and the CDC vaccine fiasco sets up a public health migraine.
1. Congress to Grill Intel Chiefs Over Iran Strike Fumble
Congressional briefings on Trump’s Iran airstrikes are now rescheduled for Thursday (Axios, Washington Post). Lawmakers, especially Senate Democrats, are promising fireworks, demanding specifics on what was actually destroyed and why the White House lied. Odds of a bipartisan push for tighter war powers shot up. Unexpected ripple: At least two intel officials are prepping resignations over being scapegoated for the operation’s dud results (Greenwich Time).
2. Markets Whipsawed as Ceasefire Hangs by a Thread
Oil prices tanked up to 5% after the Israel-Iran ‘ceasefire’—which both sides immediately broke—looked like a clown show (Yahoo Finance, WSJ). Stocks briefly jumped, but any new rockets or Trump Twitter tantrums will send prices lurching. Second-order: U.S. airlines are quietly rerouting flights away from the region, bracing for a ‘surprise’ no-fly order if the truce collapses (60% chance, Reuters).
3. NATO Allies Rattle as Trump Dodges Article 5 Again
Trump’s refusal to commit to NATO’s mutual defense pledge (Politico, Reuters) triggered emergency calls among European leaders ahead of the summit vote on 5% defense spending. Germany and Poland will issue joint statements demanding clarity, while several member states plan snap legislative sessions. Knock-on: Defense stocks in Europe surge on speculation countries will start stockpiling hardware, fearing Trump’s bluff isn’t a bluff (WSJ).
4. Peace Prize Farce: Nobel Committee in Damage Control
Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize nomination for the Iran-Israel mess sparked outrage—especially after Pakistan and Ukraine yanked their support (Fox News, AP). The Nobel committee is expected to issue a rare public clarification about its nomination process to distance itself from the circus. Side effect: Activists in Oslo are organizing a protest outside the Nobel Institute, targeting both Trump and the prize itself for ‘rewarding chaos.’
5. House Democrats in Open Civil War After Impeachment Fizzles
Nearly 130 Democrats helped kill the impeachment bid over Iran (Newsweek, Axios), but the left wing is out for blood. Expect a raft of angry floor speeches, and at least one high-profile resignation from a House committee in protest by a progressive member (70% chance, Politico). Ripple: Vulnerable “centrist” Democrats face new primary threats from the party’s activist base.
Notables
CDC Panel Delay Could Upend Fall Vaccine Rollout
A CDC vaccine panel meeting is likely to be postponed, with some insurers threatening to deny new vaccine coverage until the dust settles (CNN, NYT). Expect chaos for parents and providers if the schedule isn’t resolved by next week.
Environmental Lawsuits Line Up After Roadless Rule Repeal
Major green groups announce lawsuits within 24 hours of the Trump administration gutting forest protections. Markets watching timber stocks for a fast bump, but legal battles loom (Washington Post, NYT).
ICE Detention Surge Sparks Hunger Strikes
Record immigrant detentions prompt reports of coordinated hunger strikes at several large ICE facilities. Rights groups draft emergency lawsuits (CBS News).
Tomorrow’s going to be a migraine. Get your coffee and/or whiskey ready.