Tuesday June 24th, 2025
Ceasefire Fumbles, Congress Rumbles, Oil Stumbles—Now What?
Ceasefire, but hold the confetti: the U.S. and Iran just played missile tag and called it a draw. Congress is pissed, Trump is tweeting up a storm, and oil markets are either high on adrenaline or just high. Here’s what will likely slap you across the face tomorrow.
Today in one sentence: A shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire takes hold after the biggest military tit-for-tat since Carter was president, Trump’s regime-change talk sends Iran and Congress into a fit, and the Pentagon can’t prove the nukes are out of the box—or the box even exists.
1. Ceasefire Holds—Barely
Trump’s hastily brokered Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through the first 24 hours, but both sides scramble to paint it as a ‘win’ while regional players (hello, Hezbollah) test the boundaries. Expect Haaretz and Newsweek to report minor violations and heavy posturing by morning. Second-order: Gulf airlines brace for rerouted traffic as airspace restrictions linger.
2. Congress Plots War Powers Showdown
After Trump’s Iran strikes, expect ABC News and Fox News to show a rare bipartisan push in Congress to slap new limits on the president’s war powers. Impeachment chatter simmers, but the odds of actual removal hover near zero. Watch for GOP infighting to spill over to cable news, with Speaker Johnson stonewalling any real vote. Ripple: Look for activist groups to announce protests in D.C. and major cities.
3. Oil Markets Yo-Yo as Drillers Shrug
Despite Trump’s ALL-CAPS demands, oil producers ignore the White House and keep output steady, as reported by Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg. Prices whiplash but settle as traders realize no new supply is coming, and the Iran-Israel drama didn’t torch any rigs. Odd twist: U.S. gas stations see brief lines as Americans panic buy on Twitter rumors.
4. Nuclear Inspections in Limbo
IAEA inspectors beg for access to bombed Iranian sites, but Wired and AP note that Iran played shell-game with its uranium beforehand. The Pentagon admits it’s flying blind. Expect international watchdogs to demand emergency talks and warn of a nuclear black hole. Unexpected ripple: European markets dip on fears of nuclear material going ‘missing.’
5. Regime Change Talk Backfires
Trump’s regime-change post fuels hardliner rallies in Tehran, as Reuters and HuffPost show Iranian officials using U.S. rhetoric to justify crackdowns and whip up nationalism. Watch for Supreme Leader Khamenei to denounce ‘Yankee interference’ in a rare live address. Ripple: Iranian cyber units step up phishing attacks on Western targets (see SecurityWeek).
Notables
Supreme Court Deportation Fallout
Advocacy groups prepare lawsuits to halt deportations after the Supreme Court’s greenlight to send immigrants to danger zones. DHS faces fresh scrutiny for deaths and abuses in ‘third country’ removals.
VOA Layoffs Spark Disinfo Fears
With Voice of America gutted, media watchdogs warn of a misinformation surge as OANN circles for takeover (70% chance of Congressional inquiry by week’s end).
Texas Ten Commandments Law Faces Lawsuit
Civil liberties groups file suit against Texas’ classroom Commandments law, teeing up a federal court clash over church-state separation.
Tomorrow’s headlines: just like today’s, only messier.