Thursday June 5th, 2025
Senate stalls, tariffs bite, and Ukraine burns.
The Senate slow-walks Trump’s deficit bomb, tariffs spark price hikes, and Ukraine’s war just got nastier. Also: AI regulation by sneak attack and the Fed tells Trump to take a hike.
Today in one sentence: Trump’s economic gambit faces Senate skepticism and market blowback, while his foreign policy promises go up in smoke from Ukraine to Beijing.
1. Senate Stalls On Trump’s $2.4T Deficit Bill
Senate leaders look ready to blow past Trump’s July 4 deadline as fiscal hawks bristle at the deficit spike and Medicaid cuts (Fox News). With the House passing by one vote and public backlash growing, expect open GOP infighting and at least one public defection from Trump’s camp. Ripple: Wall Street analysts will start pricing in slower passage and higher deficit risk premiums.
2. AI Regulation Shock: Lawmakers Demand Do-Over
Fallout from the ‘no one read the bill’ admission explodes, with bipartisan calls to strip the AI preemption clause as tech watchdogs and state attorneys general gear up for a court fight (no direct news confirmation, but momentum building). Second-order: Expect at least one state AG to announce legal action or ‘ignore’ policy within 24 hours.
3. Tariffs Trigger Price Spikes—And Panic
Markets brace for car, can, and appliance price hikes after the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs kick in (Wall Street Journal, Investopedia). Manufacturers warn of layoffs and production cuts; Canada and Mexico threaten retaliation. Surprise: Expect a major automaker to announce a U.S. production pause or layoffs by end of week.
4. U.S.-China Rare Earth Fight Derails Trade Talks
The rare earth standoff has spooked global markets and left U.S.-China trade talks dead in the water (CNN, Kitco). Expect both sides to double down: China with tightened export licenses, U.S. with more tech restrictions. Ripple: EU leaders now scramble for their own rare earth deals, threatening to upend U.S.-EU trade unity.
5. Fed Gives Trump The Cold Shoulder On Rates
After Trump’s latest Twitter fit, the Fed—citing ‘uncertainty’ (Investopedia)—refuses to cut rates, blaming trade chaos for weak jobs. Watch for Wall Street to slide on Friday’s NFP number and at least one major CEO to publicly call for ‘policy clarity.’
Notables
Emergency Abortion Chaos
Hospitals brace for lawsuits and patient transfers after Trump admin’s abortion guidance rollback; at least one major coalition threatens to sue by week’s end.
Columbia Accreditation On The Brink
Columbia University’s accreditor may suspend status after anti-Semitism findings; ripple effect likely at other Ivies (70% confidence).
Russian Missile Strikes Escalate
After Ukraine’s drone hit, Russia launches major missile barrage on Kyiv, killing civilians (AP/NYT); U.S. officials scramble to clarify ‘red lines.’
Tomorrow’s news will break something you thought couldn’t get worse.